This article by Computerworld's Cyber-Cynic, Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols, says that MS has fubarred their desktop scenario so badly by dropping XP (despite customer pleadings to the contrary) and pushing Vista that the door is wide open for Linux and Macs to take over a significant chunk of the desktop market.
I agree to a point.
Yes, Vista is crap, for many reason, not the least of which is found here. Yes, for every Vista apologist on comment boards, I would estimate that there are at least five detractors, probably ten. Yes, it's finally the dream OS as far as the RIAA and the MPAA are concerned.
But what is going to have to happen is that PC manufacturers get fed up enough to tell MS to shove their pre-install policy where the sun's rays fail to penetrate.
Do you really think people would go out and buy Vista to run their computers if it wasn't already installed? Take a look at Vista's store shelf sales to see the answer.
Microsoft, which was nailed by the DOJ way back in 1994 for "monopolistic" practices that strongly discouraged PC manufacturers from offering any operating system but theirs, has apparently complied with the letter of the law, as far as the government is concerned.
But practically speaking, you buy a new PC, you're stuck with Vista. Dell will sell you an Ubuntu-equipped machine, but amazingly enough, it costs MORE with the FOSS operating system installed! Unfortunately, we can't blame that directly on MS. No, the lack of crapware kickbacks is what makes an inherently more secure Vista-less machine cost more from Dell.
My next machine will be a no-brainer. I'll buy a bare-bones system from TigerDirect or a competitor and install my own FOSS OS. And I also offer to do the same for a select group of friends. I could probably be persuaded to do so on a commercial basis, as well. Once you get past the setup process, Linux just WORKS.
But a whole bunch more folks like myself will have to get fed up, or, more importantly, the PC manufacturers will have to feel the pinches that make it in their own best interests to offer Vista as an optional included install CD rather than a pre-installed OS.
If that ever happens, THEN look for Linux to make some serious inroads on the home users' desktop PC's.
